Altadena’s first lot since the Eaton Fire, was sold recently on Calaveras Street for $100k above listing. Location and price wise this seems low to me, but also the buyer will have to wait a while before anything can happen. I see two more lots up for sale at the similar original listing of around $440k.
We did grading/drainage and Low Impact Development Plans in the area last year and that process in itself takes some time before permits are issued through LA County. Adding on the phases of cleanup before knowing what the lot will be, will make the rebuilding process a bit more tricky and time consuming.
The price per squarefoot in Altadena was starting to get around $1200 for non flip houses, so using a 1000 sqft house as a previous rough number, the area was generally $1.2mil houses. I have heard all sorts of numbers for cost of construction ranging from $600-900 for a lot of Los Angeles. I asked a few more contractors around the areas of our projects being built and was told similar, but $800+ was more typical with low end finishes. Now we are adding nearly 10000 houses in Altadena and 6000 houses in Pacific Palisades to the list of potential new construction, and it becomes very unclear what construction costs can become. Lets take $750/sqft as a middle number to build. $750 x 1000 = $750k to rebuild a typical 1000sqft Altadena house plus $550k as the last lost sold which becomes $1.3mil.
The example above shows why a few different things are going on with how these lots get rebuilt. If someone buys a lot, they need to build larger than the typical bungalow style from the 1930’s. If the original owner rebuilds they will need to come to the table with potentially more money above insurance if they don’t want to be upside down on the final rebuild, as $1200/sqft could be a fair number even after the City was destroyed.
What I think happens is slowly over time more expensive, somewhat larger houses get built, but still keeps a similar charm of the original area as the majority of the lots aren’t large enough to build huge mansions, but also the lots are not too small to build the under 1000 sqft bungalows that were scattered around the City. I wouldn’t expect rezoning to happen where apartments and condos are built, but I could imagine some developers attempting to tie lots together to build some more mansion like single story houses in the 3000+ sqft range. Maybe someone gets a bright idea on how they can lot split and put a small bungalow plus ADU on chopped up lots in the 5000 sqft range, possibly splitting out the 10000 sqft lots.
If I was to guess , I think the common size house will go from 1000-1300 sqft to 1800-2400 sqft, and that would still fit the character of the neighborhoods. I know one Architect we work with is looking at putting out a style guide for the City so people have some reference on how to keep that unique charm that kept Altadena way under peoples’ radar.
A lot of people care about what happens here, but the costs associated with rebuilding have to be taken into consideration so those who lost everything don’t lose even more trying to build pipe dreams. Time is also a factor which is why I am pretty neutral on some of these lots being sold to developers who will get the ball rolling so people can start to see there is a future in the loved City of Altadena. I suspect the lots will end up selling for more over time, and people realizing this becomes a more artsy hidden La Canada East, and not a North Pasadena extension.